Jan 8 (Reuters) – La Nina continues to persist, with a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions likely between January and March, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said on Thursday.
“Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with La Niña. For most of the month, easterly wind anomalies were present over the central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across the equatorial Pacific,” the U.S. weather forecaster added.
WHY IT’S IMPORTANT La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chance of floods and drought, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields. KEY QUOTES “The current La Nina is weak with ENSO expected to return to neutral in February or March. There is a chance for El Nino conditions to develop in later Northern Hemisphere summer,” said Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather, adding that there are no widespread drought conditions in the global crop areas.
Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather, said “the transition back to neutral will likely equate for wetter conditions in Argentina, which will favor winter wheat in their winter coming up.”
It would also result in wetter conditions in the central and southern Plains in the U.S. later this summer, which would result in a better outlook for late growth of the hard red winter wheat crop, corn and soybeans, Keeney added.
“While there may be isolated individual market challenges, we believe that impacts are limited by expectations of a weak La Niña, which will not persist throughout the entirety of the crop season,” said Matthew Biggin, senior analyst at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company. CONTEXT
Indonesia’s agency climate official Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said a La Nina weather pattern, which typically brings more rainfall, was expected to be weaker in 2026 and should conclude by the end of the first quarter.
Heavy rainfall forecast across most of Argentina’s agricultural belt will boost moisture levels over the coming days, benefiting soy and corn crops at key development stages, two major grain exchanges said on Wednesday.
Atmospheric indicators, such as trade winds, pressure and cloud patterns over the equatorial central Pacific, have shown consistent, though relatively weak, signs of La Niña since mid-to-late September, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday.
The Bureau predicts that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain at La Niña levels until around late summer before returning to neutral.
(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru)
