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Indiana, Miami open as CFP semifinal favorites

By Thomson Reuters Jan 1, 2026 | 11:31 PM

Indiana emerged as the lone team with a bye to win in the College Football Playoff semifinals, and the Hoosiers are now the clear favorite to win the national title.

Following ‍a 38-3 dismantling of ninth-seeded Alabama, top-seeded Indiana was installed as a consensus 4.0-point favorite to beat Oregon in the Peach Bowl at Atlanta on Jan. 9. The fifth-seeded Ducks opened Saturday’s three-game slate with a 23-0 victory over fourth-seeded Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl.

Indiana is the +135 favorite at DraftKings ‌to win the championship. That’s ahead of Oregon and ‌Miami at +300.

The 10th-seeded Hurricanes opened the quarterfinals with a 24-14 upset of second-seeded Ohio State on New Year’s Eve in the Cotton Bowl at Arlington, Texas. Miami had to wait until the final game on Saturday to learn ​who its opponent will be in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 8 at Glendale, Ariz.

Sixth-seeded Ole Miss survived a wild game against third-seeded ‍Georgia, winning the Sugar Bowl 39-34 on ​a last-minute field goal and a safety on the ​ensuing kickoff.

Ole Miss was installed as a 3.0-point underdog against Miami by ‍DraftKings, which also had the Rebels with the longest remaining title odds at +550.

Indiana (14-0) became the first top-four seed to win a game in the 12-team CFP, after teams with a bye went 0-6 to start the expanded playoff era. Georgia became the seventh loser following a ‍bye week later on Saturday.

“It’s definitely a huge struggle,” Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza said. “I think Coach (Curt) Cignetti did a fantastic job of a trickle-down effect ‍of really making sure ‍there was no complacency. You have 26 days off, ​it’s very tough.”

The Peach Bowl semifinal will be ​a rematch ⁠of an Oct. 11 game at Eugene, Ore., ‌when the Hoosiers beat the Ducks 30-20.

“I’m not going to assume anything like we’ve bounced back from a lot of big wins and we’ll be fine,” Cignetti said. “Because it’s a process. We’ll have a very big challenge ahead of us next week. It’s very hard to beat a very good football team ⁠twice.”

–Field Level Media