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Futures tumble as tariffs fuel recession worries

By Thomson Reuters Mar 31, 2025 | 5:15 AM

(Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures tumbled on Monday as investors avoided risky assets on fears that the Trump administration’s sweeping tariff plans set to be unveiled this week will hurt the global economy.

Stocks across the world fell sharply, gold prices scaled new highs and U.S. Treasuries rallied after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that reciprocal tariffs he is set to announce this week will include all nations.

At 5:30 a.m. ET (0930 GMT), S&P 500 E-minis fell 49 points, or 0.87%. Nasdaq 100 E-minis dropped 240 points, or 1.23%, and Dow E-minis were down 244 points, or 0.58%.

U.S. stock markets have succumbed to sharp selling pressure this year as Trump announced tariffs on some of its main trading partners, raising fears of a global economic slowdown and a spike in inflation.

Trump, who sees tariffs as a way of protecting the domestic economy from unfair global competition, has promised to unveil a massive tariff plan on Wednesday, which he has dubbed “Liberation Day”.

“We doubt ‘Liberation Day’ is going to mark the end around tariff uncertainty … the potential is in fact higher for the April 2 deadline to introduce even more uncertainty, and hence the prolonged broad-based weakness in leading indicators,” said HSBC’s Chief Multi-Asset Strategist Max Kettner.

Wall Street’s main indexes were set for big monthly and quarterly declines, with the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq set for their worst quarterly performances in about three years.

Tech stocks were at the forefront of the selloff on Monday, with Nvidia sliding 3.6% in premarket trading. Microsoft fell 1.6% and Tesla slid 4.3%.

The CBOE Volatility index, also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, touched a more than two-week high at 23.88 points.

Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. recession probability to 35% from 20% and cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 2.0%. Goldman also expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates thrice this year, up from its previous forecast of two, expecting heightened recession risks due to U.S. tariffs.

The focus this week will also be on a slew of economic data including the crucial non-farm payrolls report on Friday as well as speeches from several U.S. central bank officials. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday.

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)