Fed hawks and doves: US central bankers see ‘no urgency’ to cut

By Thomson Reuters Apr 22, 2024 | 10:26 AM

(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.

The topsy-turvy economic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering U.S. economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.

The risks are now seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.

All 12 regional Fed presidents debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.

The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes on the FOMC.

The following chart shows officials’ latest views on the outlook for Fed policy and the economy. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.

For a breakdown of how Reuters’ counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Patrick Jerome Powell, Raphael Michelle

Harker, Fed Chair, Bostic, Bowman,

Philadelphia permanent Atlanta Fed Governor,

Fed voter: “Right President, permanent

President, now, given the 2024 voter: voter:”We

2026 voter: strength of the Now expects are still

When it labor market one rate cut not yet at

comes to a and progress on this year, the point

rate cut, “I inflation so in the where it

think we’re far, it’s fourth is

close, give appropriate to quarter, appropriat

us a couple allow down from e to lower

of restrictive two the policy

meetings.” policy further previously rate, and

Feb 22, 2024 time to work (April 3, I continue

and let the 2024). “Give to see a

data and the n that the number of

evolving U.S. economy upside

outlook guide has been so risks to

us.” April 16, robust and inflation.

2024 so strong ” April 5,

and so 2024

resilient, I

can’t take

off the


that rate

cuts may

even have to

move further

out.” April

9, 2024

John Williams, Loretta

New York Fed Mester,

President, Cleveland

permanent Fed

voter: Three President,

rate cuts in 2024 voter*:

2024 is “a Three rate

reasonable kind cuts in 2024

of starting “feels about

point.” (Feb right.” (Feb

28, 2024) “I 29, 2024)

definitely “At some

don’t feel point, as we

urgency to cut get more

interest confidence,

rates.” April we will

18, 2024 start to


policy back

to a less


stance, but

we don’t

have to do

that in a


April 17,


Philip Thomas

Jefferson, Vice Barkin,

Chair: “My Richmond Fed

baseline President,

outlook 2024

continues to be voter: The

that inflation latest

will decline inflation

further, with numbers “did

the policy rate not increase

held steady at my

its current confidence”

level.” April that price

16, 2024 pressures

are easing.

April 11,


Michael Barr, Jeffrey

Vice Chair of Schmid,

Supervision, Kansas City

permanent Fed

voter: “It’s President,

very early to 2025 voter:

say whether we “This recent

end up with a data

‘soft landing’ underscores

or not.” Feb what I

14, 2024 believe is

the need for

the Federal

Reserve to

be patient

as we wait

for clear





inflation is

on track to


return to

2%.” April

12, 2024

Christopher Neel

Waller, Kashkari,

Governor, Minneapolis

permanent Fed

voter: “There President,

is no rush to 2026 voter:

cut the policy Penciled in

rate.” March two 2024

27, 2024 rate cuts in

March. “If

we continue

to see




then that

would make

me question

whether we

need to do

those rate

cuts at

all.” April

4, 2024

Lisa Cook, Lorie Logan,

Governor, Dallas Fed

permanent President,

voter: “Fully 2026 voter:

restoring price “I believe

stability may it’s much

take a cautious too soon to

approach to think about

easing monetary cutting

policy over interest

time.” March rates.”

25, 2024 April 5,


Adriana Kugler,



voter: “If


and labor



proceed as I am


expecting, then

some lowering

of the policy

rate this year

would be


April 3, 2024

Mary Daly, San

Francisco Fed

President, 2024

voter: Three

rate cuts this

year is “a very



(April 2, 2024)

“The worst

thing to do is

act urgently

when urgency is

not required.”

April 16, 2024.



Chicago Fed

President, 2025

voter: At the

median Fed

expectation for

three rate cuts

in 2024 (March

25, 2024).

After three

straight months





readings, “I

think we have

to recalibrate

and we have to

wait and see.”

April 19, 2024

Susan Collins,

Boston Fed

President, 2025


Expectation is

“in the range

of two” rate

cuts for 2024.

“Less concern

about labor



combined with

the possibility

that policy is

only modestly


also reduces

the urgency to

ease.” April

11, 2024

Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred in July 2023. Half of policymakers as of mid-March thought three rate cuts this year would be appropriate; just as many thought it would be fewer, projections released after their March 19-20 meeting showed. Two of 19 thought there would be none. Alberto Musalem, who starts as the St. Louis Fed’s president on April 2, has not made any substantive policy remarks and is not included in the dove-hawk matrix.

*Mester hits the Fed banks’ mandatory retirement age in June; if a successor is not yet hired, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee would vote until one is.

Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.

FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Apr/May ’24 0 1 10 6 1

March ’24 0 1 11 5 1

Jan ’24 0 2 9 4 1

Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1

Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2

Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3

June ’23 0 3 3 8 3

March ’23 0 2 3 10 2

Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao)