(Reuters) – The labels “dove” and “hawk” have long been used by central bank watchers to describe the monetary policy leanings of policymakers, with a dove more focused on risks to the labor market and a hawk more focused on the threat of inflation.
The topsy-turvy economic environment of the COVID-19 pandemic sidelined those differences, turning Federal Reserve officials at first universally dovish as they sought to provide massive accommodation for a cratering U.S. economy, and then, when inflation surged, into hawks who uniformly backed aggressive interest rate hikes.
The risks are now seen as more balanced and the choices more nuanced.
All 12 regional Fed presidents debate monetary policy at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings that are held eight times a year, but only five cast votes at any given meeting, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chair and vice chairs, have permanent votes on the FOMC.
The following chart shows officials’ latest views on the outlook for Fed policy and the economy. The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more on the thinking that shaped these hawk-dove designations, click on the photos in this graphic.
For a breakdown of how Reuters’ counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Patrick Jerome Powell, Raphael Michelle
Harker, Fed Chair, Bostic, Bowman,
Philadelphia permanent Atlanta Fed Governor,
Fed voter: “Right President, permanent
President, now, given the 2024 voter: voter:”We
2026 voter: strength of the Now expects are still
When it labor market one rate cut not yet at
comes to a and progress on this year, the point
rate cut, “I inflation so in the where it
think we’re far, it’s fourth is
close, give appropriate to quarter, appropriat
us a couple allow down from e to lower
of restrictive two the policy
meetings.” policy further previously rate, and
Feb 22, 2024 time to work (April 3, I continue
and let the 2024). “Give to see a
data and the n that the number of
evolving U.S. economy upside
outlook guide has been so risks to
us.” April 16, robust and inflation.
2024 so strong ” April 5,
and so 2024
resilient, I
can’t take
off the
possibility
that rate
cuts may
even have to
move further
out.” April
9, 2024
John Williams, Loretta
New York Fed Mester,
President, Cleveland
permanent Fed
voter: Three President,
rate cuts in 2024 voter*:
2024 is “a Three rate
reasonable kind cuts in 2024
of starting “feels about
point.” (Feb right.” (Feb
28, 2024) “I 29, 2024)
definitely “At some
don’t feel point, as we
urgency to cut get more
interest confidence,
rates.” April we will
18, 2024 start to
normalize
policy back
to a less
restrictive
stance, but
we don’t
have to do
that in a
hurry.”
April 17,
2024
Philip Thomas
Jefferson, Vice Barkin,
Chair: “My Richmond Fed
baseline President,
outlook 2024
continues to be voter: The
that inflation latest
will decline inflation
further, with numbers “did
the policy rate not increase
held steady at my
its current confidence”
level.” April that price
16, 2024 pressures
are easing.
April 11,
2024
Michael Barr, Jeffrey
Vice Chair of Schmid,
Supervision, Kansas City
permanent Fed
voter: “It’s President,
very early to 2025 voter:
say whether we “This recent
end up with a data
‘soft landing’ underscores
or not.” Feb what I
14, 2024 believe is
the need for
the Federal
Reserve to
be patient
as we wait
for clear
and
convincing
evidence
that
inflation is
on track to
sustainably
return to
2%.” April
12, 2024
Christopher Neel
Waller, Kashkari,
Governor, Minneapolis
permanent Fed
voter: “There President,
is no rush to 2026 voter:
cut the policy Penciled in
rate.” March two 2024
27, 2024 rate cuts in
March. “If
we continue
to see
inflation
moving
sideways,
then that
would make
me question
whether we
need to do
those rate
cuts at
all.” April
4, 2024
Lisa Cook, Lorie Logan,
Governor, Dallas Fed
permanent President,
voter: “Fully 2026 voter:
restoring price “I believe
stability may it’s much
take a cautious too soon to
approach to think about
easing monetary cutting
policy over interest
time.” March rates.”
25, 2024 April 5,
2024
Adriana Kugler,
Governor,
permanent
voter: “If
disinflation
and labor
market
conditions
proceed as I am
currently
expecting, then
some lowering
of the policy
rate this year
would be
appropriate.”
April 3, 2024
Mary Daly, San
Francisco Fed
President, 2024
voter: Three
rate cuts this
year is “a very
reasonable
baseline.”
(April 2, 2024)
“The worst
thing to do is
act urgently
when urgency is
not required.”
April 16, 2024.
Austan
Goolsbee,
Chicago Fed
President, 2025
voter: At the
median Fed
expectation for
three rate cuts
in 2024 (March
25, 2024).
After three
straight months
of
stronger-than-e
xpected
inflation
readings, “I
think we have
to recalibrate
and we have to
wait and see.”
April 19, 2024
Susan Collins,
Boston Fed
President, 2025
voter:
Expectation is
“in the range
of two” rate
cuts for 2024.
“Less concern
about labor
market
fragilities,
combined with
the possibility
that policy is
only modestly
restrictive,
also reduces
the urgency to
ease.” April
11, 2024
Note: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to bring down high inflation. Their most recent policy rate hike, to a range of 5.25%-5.50%, occurred in July 2023. Half of policymakers as of mid-March thought three rate cuts this year would be appropriate; just as many thought it would be fewer, projections released after their March 19-20 meeting showed. Two of 19 thought there would be none. Alberto Musalem, who starts as the St. Louis Fed’s president on April 2, has not made any substantive policy remarks and is not included in the dove-hawk matrix.
*Mester hits the Fed banks’ mandatory retirement age in June; if a successor is not yet hired, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee would vote until one is.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk
Apr/May ’24 0 1 10 6 1
March ’24 0 1 11 5 1
Jan ’24 0 2 9 4 1
Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1
Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2
Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3
June ’23 0 3 3 8 3
March ’23 0 2 3 10 2
Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul Simao)
